American League: Where Do They Stand?

Posted by JE Powell

Since Opening Day is quickly approaching, I am going to take a look at each division in the American League (East, Central, West) and give my best guess as to where each team in each division will place at the end of the year. I spent minutes and minutes researching off-season moves to see if teams have improved, declined, or stagnated. My surface scratching has lead me to believe that my predictions will be at least partially accurate, so off we go.

AL East:

1. Boston Red Sox     96-66

The Red Sox could very well be the best team in baseball in 2011. After getting Adrian Gonzales from the San Diego Padres via trade and picking up Carl Crawford from free agency, the Red Sox seem to be markedly improved this year. There are two keys to this team being successful this year: 1) A healthy Josh Beckett and 2) a productive David Ortiz. Last season Ortiz had 32 HRs and 102 RBI, but he is another year older and is terrible against left handed pitching. Ortiz will more than likely bat sixth and if he can give some protection to Kevin Youkilis, then Boston could have one of the best hitting line-ups in all of baseball.

2. New York Yankees     94-68

The Yankees are basically the same team as last year that won 95 games, but I think with an improved Red Sox team, the Yankees will have a few less wins. They won the wild card last season and mostly will again this year. If they are in second place in the division (or worse, perish the thought!) I look for them to try to make a move for starting pitching.

3. Tampa Bay Rays     89-73

Tampa Bay traded away Matt Garza (to the Cubs) and lost Carl Crawford, but I look for them to have a competitive team again this year, though they I doubt they will make the playoffs. They Rays now have Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez and I think they will contribute to the Rays, though since they are 37 and 38 years old respectively (Ramirez will be 39 at the end of May) and had statistically down years last year, I do not think that capable enough to help this team win the division or the wild card. David Price should be a solid starter again and I look for James Shields to rebound from last year where he posted a 5.18 ERA and was 13-15.

4. Toronto Blue Jays     82-82

The Blue Jays no longer have Roy Halladay and Jose Bautista (who hit 54 HR last year) is moving to third base this year where he has trouble with range. I don’t see this year’s Blue Jays as being any better than last year when they went 85-77. In fact, since I am predicting 82-82, I think they will be a little worse.

5. Baltimore Orioles 80-82

The Orioles appear to be an improved team over last year with the additions of Derrick Lee, Vladamir Guerrero, and Mark Reynolds (though he tends to strike out A LOT, but does have quite a bit of home run potential). If Matt Wieters can continue improving and live up to the potential that made him the fifth overall pick of the 2007 draft, then this team could see a fourteen game improvement over the team that only won 66 game last year.

AL Central:

1. Minnesota Twins      92-70

To a certain extent, the Twins success will depend on how healthy Joe Mauer and especially Justin Morneau will be this year. Last season Mauer played in 137 games, but Morneau played in only 81, yet still hit 18 HR with 56 RBI. I find it hard to bet against the Twins over the last decade or so, they always seem to find a way to win. The Twins have won six division titles since 2001 and I am predicting a 7th this year. If Joe Nathan can return to his 2009 form, then this team could be looking at playing for a trip to the World Series, but as I have said, their limiting factor this season will be health.

2. Chicago White Sox     90-72

The Chicago White Sox picked up Adam Dunn in the offseason and that is going to help them quite a bit this year, but not enough for them to win the division or get the wild card, in my estimation. Ozzie Guillen seems to put competitive teams on the field every year, and will again this year, but I feel that the Twins are slightly better. For the White Sox to be successful this year, Jake Peavy needs to come back healthy and pitch like he’s got something to prove and Mark Buehrle needs to pitch better than 13-13 with a 4.28 ERA.

3. Detroit Tigers     86-76

The Tigers picked up Victor Martinez in the offseason which will help the already good hitting line-up that includes Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, and Miguel Cabrera. I don’t think they are good enough to win the division or the wild card, but they will be competitive and should finish with a winning record. Last year Rick Porcello had a sophomore slump after a solid rookie season, but if he can bounce back and pitch well enough to get 14-15 wins, then the Tigers might win 88 or 89.

4. Cleveland Indians      83-79

This is a mediocre team at best. They have an aging second baseman in Orlando Cabrera, a center fielder who only played in 33 games last year (Grady Sizemore), and a catcher who has been in the music industry for 40+ years and found success a few years back when he teamed with Rob Thomas and made the song “Smooth”…er, sorry, wrong Carlos Santana. The Carlos Santana that plays baseball was a rookie last year and in only 46 games hit 6 HR and 22 RBI. Shin-Soo Choo is another bright spot on this team when he finished with a .300/.401/.484 line last year. Oh and I suppose I would be amiss if I didn’t mention former Cardinal Chris Perez as a bright spot. He finished last season with 23 saves, a 1.71 ERA, and 61 K’s in 63 innings of work.

5. Kansas City Royals     73-89

I think the Royals are improved over the team that only won 67 games last year, but not a huge improvement. The Royals got a promising young shortstop in Alcides Escobar in the Zack Greinke deal and Joakim Soria may be one of the top two or three closers in all of baseball. The Royals may division contenders in a few years with some of the young talent they have, but right now they are just not a very good team. A little better than last year, but not by much.

Some of you may have noticed that I have the AL Central finishing exactly in the same order as last year and that’s mostly because I don’t think these teams are any better or any worse than last year. Mostly about the same.

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels     90-72

With the additions of Vernon Wells‘ bat and former Cardinal Danny Haren’s arm, I think we can see a ten game improvement over last season from this team. They now have a very good one-two punch with Jerrod Weaver and Haren atop the rotations and if Kendrys Morales can stay healthy this year I think we will see a very potent line-up.

2. Texas Rangers 88-74

They lost Cliff Lee but gained Adrian Beltre. Beltre is now in a line-up that consists of Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Nelson Cruz. This team has the potential to score a lot of runs and their winning, in my opinion, depends on pitching. If C.J. Wilson has another 15-8 season or even improves upon it, then we could see the Rangers being in the thick of things. The difference maker for this team will be Brandon Webb. If Webb can return to his Cy Young form of a few years ago, then the Rangers could repeat as division champions, but I think Webb’s health issues will linger this season and the Rangers will just miss the division crown.

3. Oakland Athletics 84-78

Better, but barely. Last season they finished 81-81 for second in the division but if the Angles do as well as I think they will, then the A’s will be delegated to third this season. The A’s now have David DeJesus in left field, Coco Crisp in center, and Josh Willingham in right. Kurt Suzuki is solid behind the plate and former Yankee Hideki Matsui as the DH. As I said, a little better, but not much.

4. Seattle Mariners     69-93

Terrible. Their one bright spot last year was Felix Hernandez and his Cy Young season. Though he only finish with a 13-12 record he had a 2.27 ERA and 232 Ks with a 1.06 WHIP. On any winning team last year, Hernandez may have been able to win 22 or 23 games. Seattle, however, finished last in almost every offensive category and I don’t see them as much better than last year. Ichiro Suzuki is basically a slap single hitter. Of his 214 hits last season only 39 went for extra base hits. He batted .315 but only had 43 RBI which should tell you a little about how bad this team was offensively. They now have former Cardinal Brendan Ryan though he probably won’t add much to the offense. His defense is superb, though, and I wish him all the best of luck in the 2011 season and years to come.

So, that’s where I think every team in the AL will finish and a little about why I think they will finish there. To tell me why I am blatantly wrong you can follow me on twitter @STLfear_the_red or email me at stlfear.the.red@gmail.com. And of course you can always leave a comment!