NL: East Bound and Down

Posted by JE Powell

Today, as part of the United Cardinal Bloggers Monthly Project, I am going to take a look at the NL East. Yesterday I took a look at the entire American League and I must admit that while I mostly enjoyed doing the research and writing about the AL, I felt a little out of place. Since I am a Cardinals fan I am a National League guy (I really don’t care for the designated hitter that the AL uses) and I don’t pay all that much attention to the AL during the regular season. The Cardinals face all of the NL teams several times each year, so I have become more familiar with NL teams than AL teams. Now that I am in more familiar territory (I do like expanding my horizons, but I’m just not a big fan of the AL style of play) let’s get down to it.

NL East

1. Atlanta Braves      93-69

Yes, I know that the Phillies are the favorites to win the division, but I think the Braves will end up winning the division this year. The Braves are sporting a line-up that includes Martin Prado, young budding star Jason Heyward, Chipper Jones (if he can stay healthy, I think he will be productive), new acquisition Dan Uggla, Alex Gonzalez, and Nate McClouth. McClouth had a down year last year, but if he can return to his 2009 or even 2008 form, he will help this team win. While the Braves starting rotation may not be as good as the Phillies, their starting five should be effective. Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson (he pitched better last year than his win/loss record would indicate), and Jair Jurrjens are all capable of winning 12+ games and Hudson, Lowe, and Hanson could win 15 to 18 games apiece. I think the Braves will surprise some people this year.

2. Philadelphia Phillies     91-71

By now, anyone with any familiarity to the current baseball situation should be aware of the Phillies starting rotation that consists of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. Oh, and Joe Blanton, but he is just kind of a throw in and there has been some speculation that he could be moved. Halladay is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but I don’t think that Hamels or Oswalt will win 20 games and I have a suspicion that neither will Lee. The problem is run support and I don’t think the Phillies are capable of putting up good run support on a daily basis this season. Chase Utley is injured and hasn’t played in a spring training game yet, so there is no telling when/if he will return from a knee injury that doctors cannot seem to figure out. Jimmy Rollins only played in 88 games last year and Placido Polonco did not produce very much last year. Raul Ibanez will be 39 in June, so he is getting up there in age and Jayson Werth left for the Washington Nationals. Shane Victorino is a pretty good player, but he really isn’t a season long difference maker. Of course, Ryan Howard is still a beast with 31 HR and 108 RBI but he struck out 157 times. So the question boils down to this: do the Phillies have enough pitching to compensate for poor run support? I think overall that, yes, they do but I don’t think its enough to win the division. They won 97 games last year, but that was with a healthier Utley and with Werth, which, in my opinion, translates to six less win.

3. Florida Marlins     86-76

This team has a very good core of under-30 players in Mike Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison, and Omar Infante. This team, while not great, has the ability to finish the season ten games over. Their starting rotation is anchored by ace Josh Johnson who had a very good 2.30 ERA last year. The rotation this year won’t be as good as Philadelphia’s or Atlanta’s, Florida has five starters that could win 12-14 games. I think this team will be in the thick of things until a late season fade.

4. Washington Nationals     75-87

The Nationals picked up Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche to go along with Ryan Zimmerman and, although they lost Adam Dunn, the Nationals should have a pretty good hitting line up. The starting rotation is a little suspect with aging Livan Hernandez as the staff ace,  but I see them as good enough to get the team to 75 wins.

5. New York Mets     70-92

The Mets have so many questions this season that until some of them get answered I just don’t think they are going be very good at all. Can Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Jason Bay stay healthy and contribute? What will come of the lawsuit? Can their pitching staff actually win games? How well will Johan Santana pitch when he returns in July? We shall have these questions answered in time, I would think, but right now there are just to many for me to think they will be any good.

Tomorrow I will take a look at the NL Central, though it will probably be a short piece since I have actually covered the NL Central a couple of times in blog posts. So, tune in tomorrow, same Bat time, same Bat channel.